The Randomness in Dividends
This past year has been a fun and interesting one. It's kind of unsuspecting to think a guy who has his Masters in Real Estate would be more interested in topics on randomness, freakonomics, and quantitative valuations than real estate properties and JV waterfalls. The reasoning behind my interests in these topics is because of the complexity and my prior failures at my other financial models. To be frank, the valuation models I planned to sell online were utter garbage due to their lack of taking into account market anomalies, random events, and soundness.
While figuring out how to make my models, I came across a book called Fooled by Randomness by Nicolas Taleb the Quant Trader who coined the phrase "Black Swan". He spoke about the randomness in everyday things and how we as humans overlook the anomalies and are overconfident in our abilities in industries subject to randomness. Things change each and everyday, almost everything in the world is subject to change and comes in random intervals. This is particularly relevant in the stock market as investor sentiments towards a stock changes, company's implement new strategies that may change the course of the company's fortune, or a company may cut their dividend next year to offset losses just to name a few. Everything is subject to change when your dealing with investing in securities. Nobody can consistently predict accurately where things will be in the next year, however, there is a way for us to get a good idea on where things may be based on past data through the Monte Carlo Simulation. As you should know I believe consistent dividends should be the goal for every investment you go in so my approaches are all dividend investor based. As I like to do I started tinkering around with stuff in Excel and thought why not mix it different valuation concepts together and see what happens which brought the Dividend Discount Monte Carlo Simulation(DDMC). Just like stock prices move randomly, dividends also move randomly based on two main factors future dividend payments and future growth rates. So in the Monte Carlo Dividend Model I run tests on both a stocks future dividend payment and future growth rates. The reasoning behind this is because a company can randomly increase or lower their dividend next quarter this is particularly true of REIT's whom I are more subject to change due to them having to pay out 90 percent of their profits to investors in dividends. Since REIT's have to allocate 90 percent of their profits in dividends that doesn't leave them with much to invest towards buying properties and refurbishing assets to increase cash flows. So more than likely they would decrease their dividend causing dividend investors to move towards higher yielding stocks and assets. In addition, the same reasoning is true of why I tested growth rates. Of course, some well capitalized companies with large portfolios such as Simon Property, Kimco, Boston Properties, Equity Residential to name a few are able to remain strong and provide good dividends due to the breadth of high quality assets in their portfolio. This is strictly REIT based, this program allows you to instantly get stock prices past and present, randomly test future dividends and growth rates by one click of a button. Also, within it includes a static dividend discount model and Gordon Growth model. I urge you to understand that the REITNOMIC DDMC model helps give you a good idea on what you would be willing to pay based on the dividend and your required return. This is in no way the magic formula to making money in the market. All my models are strictly to provide guidance and to better equip investors.
The REITNOMIC DDMC model will be for sell at $35 on Spreesy. A lot of work and research went into making these financial models from scratch. I really enjoyed making this because it helped me expand my thinking beyond what I was suffering from which was straight line thinking. I'm really glad to make this available to people who want to make money in the market but can't afford the tools such as a Bloomberg Terminal or a valuation software from Green Street. My software is fully functional and if you have any issues you can email me at reitnomic@gmail.com. For purchase inquiries just check out the link to my Spreesy account in my profile. I hope my software provides tremendous guidance on valuing and finding undervalued REITS that provide strong dividend plays.
About the Author
Industry: Financial Services
Area of Expertise:REIT valuation and CMBS valuation
Service Region:North America
You must be logged in to comment on this blog post.
There are 48 comments posted on this article.
[b][url=http://www.canadagoosesale.co/canada-goose-accessories-c-40.html]CanadaCanada Goose Accessories for cheap
Canada Goose Accessories for sale
[b][url=http://www.bootsforcheap.cn/no/classic-hekle-ugg-c-4.html]sasalg Classic Hekle UGG
Classic Hekle UGG for salg
[b][url=http://www.outletpandora.cn/it/beads-pandora-c-4.html]pandora collane economico
dicount pandora.
[b]patek philippe clearance sale[/b]
[b][url=http://www.bestswiss.me/]cheap tagpatek philippe clearance sale
cheap tag heuer watches online
¹ÚÉú԰·227ºÅ2ºÅÂ¥4Â¥£¬300ƽÃ×£¬2Ôª/©O/Ì죬ÎïÒµ6Ôª£¬Ö»ÓлõÌÝ£¬Ã»ÓеçÌÝ£¬±È½ÏʵÓ㡸ô¶Ï3´ó¼ä£¬5С¼ä£¬²»ÊÇÖн飬
[b]moncler kids outlet[/b]
[b][url=http://www.jacketcoatonlinesale.top/]moncler womens jackets[/url][/b]
tting involved.Bonsai plants tend to be root-pruned plus repotted annually, often while in springtime.Some group can relax in the same pot for two main years and you should watch your current plant carefully to check out if it requires repotting.
Just as any other sormoncler kids outlet
moncler womens jackets
tting involved.Bonsai plants tend to be root-pruned plus repotted annually, often while in springtime.Some group can relax in the same pot for two main years and you should watch your current plant carefully to check out if it requires repotting.
Just as any other sorts of plant, you should beware of your bonsai plants health and wellbeing.Look just for dull limp leaves or simply leaves which might be turning yellow or darkish.Any the very first or growths within the leaves is a sign for disease.Hunt for little mites or possibly bugs that will infest ones plant.Keep your own bonsai clear of any several other plants that are fitted with virtually any infestation as well as disease.If you're more dedicated your bonsai will often have a illness, remove each of the diseased browsing leaves and even take the steps needed to make your plant back on the path to health.
Bonsai vegetable care is never ever simple.Even so, it seriously isn't impossible to discover.By continuing for more info about ones plants and spending some time to refine your abilities, you can count on having your beautiful bonsai tree trees.
[b][url=http://www.watchdesigner.cn/fr/]Répliques de mRépliques de montres suisses aaa +
répliques de montres suisses
[b][url=http://www.luxuryofwatches.cn/da/]schweiziskschweiziske replika ure AAA +
schweiziske replika ure
[b][url=http://www.namebrandwatches.com.cn/nl/]Zwitserse reZwitserse replica horloges aaa +
Zwitserse replica horloges
[b][url=http://www.uggsonsale.top/]ugg boots for women[/url][/b]
[b][url=http://www.uggsonsale.top/]ugg boots outlet[/url][/b]
o your attire, you may accentuate that with tights, shoes, facial foundation, and parfum.Styling hair to in shape the attire is important.Make oneself up everywhere on and he'll not dismiss it.The truth is, he probably will be disturbed, surprised, and flattered that you've gone to a lot trouble when him.
Tights, A imitation leather outfit along with fishnet tights on any specific woman is often a tempting sight to observe.If you utilize garters for you to hook typically the stockings for the outfit, you may be feeding the partiugg boots for women
ugg boots outlet
o your attire, you may accentuate that with tights, shoes, facial foundation, and parfum.Styling hair to in shape the attire is important.Make oneself up everywhere on and he'll not dismiss it.The truth is, he probably will be disturbed, surprised, and flattered that you've gone to a lot trouble when him.
Tights, A imitation leather outfit along with fishnet tights on any specific woman is often a tempting sight to observe.If you utilize garters for you to hook typically the stockings for the outfit, you may be feeding the particular fantasies of each and every legman on the earth.
Sneakers, You might wish to go having a leather shoe.Though thigh highs are usually nice in most situations, within this environment, if you need to wear the boot, you must go with something which comes around the mid-thigh.With these types of boots, you do have a universal style, especially should you be wearing a fabulous corset.For the reason that these different boots ribbons up, also.
You may well wear heels should you not like hiking footwear.Since every woman has her own shoe inclination, the range of shoes vary with such a outfit.On the other hand, for put in kink element, wearing just the tights and hiking footwear can add more fuel into the fires burning in your partner.In case he appears interested, consider maintaining these about while the rest is getting off.
Add a little perfume towards your cleavage, somewhat blush towards your cheeks, and a few lipstick to create out the colour of your current lips.You will be able to either pin flowing hair up so very easy get the way or put it on down so the guy can run the fingers over the silken strands or possibly grip them during alot more intense instances.
Using leather, there is really much you're able to do, so get creative this approach Halloween.He are not disappointed by way of the results!
[b][url=http://watch.michaelkorsoutlet2u.cn/]swiss reswiss replica watches aaa+
swiss replica watches
[b][url=http://sv.mensdesignerwatches.co/]hög kvalitet rhög kvalitet replika klockor
hög kvalitet replika klockor
[b][url=http://www.menswatcheslove.top/fr/]Répliques de Répliques de montres suisses aaa +
répliques de montres suisses
[b][url=http://www.cheapwatchtop.com/es/]réplicas de réplicas de relojes suizos aaa +
réplicas de relojes suizos
[b][url=http://www.watchreplicalove.pro/es/]réplicas deréplicas de relojes suizos aaa +
réplicas de relojes suizos
[b][url=http://www.clemontwatches.com/pt/]réplica relréplica relógios suíços aaa +
relógios suíços réplica
Posted by cialuopatri on August 2, 2019 6:03am
[b][url=http://www.watchesreplic.top/es/]mejores réplimejores réplicas de relojes suizos
mejor réplica de relojes